Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.     

Survey of domestic food purchases and related home handling practices in the Abruzzo region (central Italy): Data collection and analysis through a language-independent classification system

A telephone survey was carried out on 13,486 randomly selected households located in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Three questionnaires were specifically designed in relation to three different groups of foods (Meat and meat products, Fishery products, Fruit and vegetables). Questions were mainly focused on the amount and number of purchases, type of retailer, and home food handling practices with respect to the week prior to the interview. Data were classified according to a multilingual thesaurus system (LanguaL). Results allowed to estimate domestic purchases (in kg) per capita for different food categories. The category “Red meat/Cattle” accounted for a large part of purchases in the “meat and meat products” group (10.9 kg per capita/year; 32.2% of purchases in the group) while the category “Fish or related organism/Fish” was the most purchased in the “fishery products” group (6.9 kg per capita/year; 63.3%). The aggregation of more detailed characteristics enabled the identification of popular categories of foods, such as “Red meat/Cattle/Divided into pieces” (25% of the “meat and meat products” group). Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the four different provinces (L'Aquila, Chieti, Pescara and Teramo) with respect to “Poultry/Chicken” and “Red meat/Cattle” categories. Householders were also asked about post-purchase food handling practices that might be hazardous to food safety. More than 20% of those surveyed stated that they thawed frozen meat at room temperature. The degree of doneness after cooking of different food categories was generally high: over 90% of products purchased in the majority of meat and fish categories were properly cooked. However a noticeable proportion of householders (about 15%) reported medium or rare cooking of “Red meat/Cattle” and “Red meat/Swine”. Differences (p < 0.05) were also found between consumers of different ages, with people over 65 years old being more prone to freeze meat and cook it thoroughly.The survey was carried out in a specific geographic area and on a statistically significant sample of households, thus allowing a collection of data on domestic habits relating to food purchases and home food handling practices. This information should be included in the framework of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models as a measure of the actual exposure of consumers to pathogenic microorganism. The LanguaL system also proved to be a practical language-independent method useful not only to identify and describe food items but also to classify them according to specific food safety characteristics.     

A web-based screening model for climate risk to water supply systems in the northeastern United States

The aim of this study is to describe the development and application of a web-based decision support tool (ViRTUE) for performing climate risk evaluations of water supply systems. The tool is designed for small-scale water utilities in the northeastern United States that may lack the resources for detailed climate change risk investigations. Development of this tool demonstrates a relatively new approach to web application development using the Shiny framework for the R programming language to create an interactive environment for stakeholders and water managers to explore climate vulnerabilities. Using a decision-scaling framework, the tool allows the user to perform a climate stress test to evaluate the performance and vulnerability to water supply shortfalls of local reservoir systems over a wide range of potential climate change scenarios using a generic systems model. Probabilities of future climate conditions derived from climate projections then help inform utility operators of impending risk.     

Evaluation of microbial toxins,trace elements and sensory properties of a high-theabrownins instant Pu-erh tea produced using Aspergillus tubingensis via submerged fermentation

Theabrownins (TB) are polymeric phenolic compounds associated with the multiple bioactivities of Pu-erh tea, a post-fermented Chinese dark tea. High-TB instant Pu-erh tea was produced via a novel submerged fermentation (SF) using Aspergillus tubingensis and compared with samples produced commercially via the conventional solid-state fermentation (SSF). Viable microorganisms and microbial toxins, especially aflatoxins B₁, G₁, B₂, G₂, cyclopiazonic acid, fumonisins B₁, B₂, B₃ and ochratoxin A, were below the detection limit in all samples. Fewer microbial metabolites were found in SF instant tea compared with the SSF teas. Based on an adult consuming 1 g of instant Pu-erh tea daily, the dietary intake of investigated elements was below the safe limits recommended by various authorities. Tasters viewed the instant tea infusions as very mild, smooth, mellow and full. This suggested that submerged fermentation using A. tubingensis offers a speedy and safe alternative to commercial production of instant Pu-erh tea.     

Quantifying community resilience based on fluctuations in visits to points-of-interest derived from digital trace data

This research establishes a methodological framework for quantifying community resilience based on fluctuations in a population''s activity during a natural disaster. Visits to points-of-interests (POIs) over time serve as a proxy for activities to capture the combined effects of perturbations in lifestyles, the built environment and the status of business. This study used digital trace data related to unique visits to POIs in the Houston metropolitan area during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Resilience metrics in the form of systemic impact, duration of impact, and general resilience (GR) values were examined for the region along with their spatial distributions. The results show that certain categories, such as religious organizations and building material and supplies dealers had better resilience metrics—low systemic impact, short duration of impact, and high GR. Other categories such as medical facilities and entertainment had worse resilience metrics—high systemic impact, long duration of impact and low GR. Spatial analyses revealed that areas in the community with lower levels of resilience metrics also experienced extensive flooding. This insight demonstrates the validity of the approach proposed in this study for quantifying and analysing data for community resilience patterns using digital trace/location-intelligence data related to population activities. While this study focused on the Houston metropolitan area and only analysed one natural hazard, the same approach could be applied to other communities and disaster contexts. Such resilience metrics bring valuable insight into prioritizing resource allocation in the recovery process.     

Nutrient digestibility and endogenous protein losses in the foregut and small intestine of weaned dairy calves fed calf starters with conventional or enzyme-treated soybean meal

The aims of this experiment were (1) to compare the effects of a soybean meal with an enzymatic treatment (ESBM) to reduce the concentration of antinutritional factors versus a standard soybean meal (SBM) on foregut and small intestine digestion in weaned dairy calves and (2) to estimate the endogenous losses of crude protein (CP) in the small intestine. Our hypothesis was that a diet containing ESBM instead of SBM would improve ruminal and small intestine digestion and absorption of nutrients. A T-cannula was placed in the duodenum, and a second T-cannula was installed in the distal ileum of 12 Holstein calves at approximately 3 wk of age. Calves were weaned on d 42, and on d 50 they were assigned randomly to a quadruplicated 3 × 3 Latin square with 10-d periods. Digesta samples were collected on d 7 and 8 from the ileum and d 9 and 10 from the duodenum. The diets were fed for ad libitum intake and consisted of a calf starter (CS) of 20% CP with SBM as the main source of protein (CTRL), and an isonitrogenous CS with an ESBM instead of SBM (ENZT). A third diet with a low content of CP (10%) and no soy protein was fed to estimate endogenous N losses and digestibilities of test ingredients. Flows and digestibilities of nutrients were compared between CTRL and ENZT and their test ingredients (SBM vs. ESBM, respectively). Duodenal net flows of CP and total AA as well as ruminal microbial protein synthesis per kilogram of digested CP were greater, and flow of nonprotein N and CP true (corrected by endogenous and microbial flows) foregut digestibility were lower with ENZT than CTRL. The apparent small intestine digestibilities of CP and total AA were greater for ESBM than SBM, but there were no differences between the CTRL and ENZT diets. We observed no differences in digestibilities at the duodenum or ileum of starch or NDF, but true small intestine digestibilities of CP and all AA were greater with ENZT than CTRL. Total endogenous protein losses in the small intestine estimated from calves fed the low-CP with no soy protein diet were 37 ± 1.5 g of CP and 29 ± 1.4 g of AA/kg of DMI. These values may be considered the basal endogenous losses as they are similar to values obtained with the regression method, which estimates N losses when dietary N is null. Our results indicated that the inclusion of an ESBM improved the efficiency of ruminal microbial protein synthesis per digested kilogram of organic matter and CP, and increased CP and AA absorption in the small intestine despite a greater proportion of undigested dietary protein entering the duodenum.     

低开销负载均衡的改进型TORA协议

针对无线传感器网络拓扑快速变化、链路易拥塞断开，存在路由开销大、负载不均衡、网络生命周期短等问题，提出低开销负载均衡的改进型TORA（TORA-p）。通过定义网络变化率参数，自适应调整互联网封装协议（IMEP）中OBM包的最大重发次数，减少不必要的路由维护开销；同时，结合MAC层信息，定义链路可用性优化选路方式，自动平衡网络负载，避免关键路径和节点负载过重而过早死亡和断开。使用truetime2.0平台设定特定的仿真环境，对TORA-p算法的性能进行了详细比较分析，结果表明：TORA-p均衡了网络负载，提升了网络生命周期，同时也减少了路由开销和延时，展现出了较好的数据传输能力。     

WSNs中规避攻击者的源位置隐私保护路由协议

为了保证无线传感器网络（Wireless Sensor Networks，WSNs）中的源节点位置隐私安全，同时实现安全性能和网络能耗的均衡，提出了WSNs中规避攻击者的源节点位置隐私路由协议，该协议假设节点具有检测攻击者的能力，通过发出危险警告消息使路由路径上的节点采取路由改变策略，使攻击者无法回溯到源节点，延长了源节点保持位置隐私的安全时间。理论分析和仿真实验表明，该协议在消耗较少的通信开销的情况下保证了源节点位置的高度隐私。